Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 50.897613 59.785046 69.496945 80.862601 93.761945 107.909509 124.561316
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 37.676031 49.547753 63.747181 81.827323 104.066422 130.348291 163.561145
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 28.629110 41.254275 57.480023 79.534345 108.357266 144.341240 192.198501
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 23.408613 36.455922 54.264485 79.800273 114.836338 160.507813 223.699477
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.862563 33.153549 52.282910 81.011424 122.091536 177.612901 256.983223
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.347781 27.574328 46.178284 75.481739 119.177149 180.405706 270.803247
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.545651 25.849585 45.433997 77.475912 126.852941 198.008325 305.692857
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.498493 23.350981 43.103931 76.679296 130.136627 209.319157 332.069498
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.850615 23.154223 44.415506 81.644604 142.427218 234.366198 379.507655
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.778770 20.004826 40.348625 77.368752 139.786067 236.739963 393.342132
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.059458 19.312433 40.452546 80.044329 148.403758 256.674247 434.489326
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.831007 19.563875 42.267889 85.796081 162.408462 285.657792 490.774926
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.191465 18.993568 42.743162 89.692347 174.407960 313.457401 548.830917
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.236659 17.580320 41.465837 90.366742 181.123036 333.479893 596.301066
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.132143 15.567462 38.675423 87.834708 181.893317 343.653158 628.366317
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.443853 14.395349 37.435984 88.120032 187.677674 362.463974 675.401682
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.931228 13.550341 36.766776 89.436604 195.403672 384.947814 729.556660
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.031770 11.401239 32.797322 83.421625 188.616750 381.532031 739.486468
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.739776 10.928500 32.680924 85.591424 197.872067 407.121476 800.486210
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.333744 9.989132 31.267753 84.724737 200.957423 421.614175 842.658894
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.259291 10.112251 32.568552 90.124957 217.156322 461.053612 930.687715
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.786770 8.725173 29.680427 85.474846 212.138887 460.533122 946.986017
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.652604 8.518717 29.961408 88.384989 223.278988 491.167442 1021.080764